At a government session chaired by the Prime Minister Askar Mamin, the Minister of National Economy Ruslan Dalenov presented the Forecast of the Country's Socio-Economic Development for 2020-2024.
As the minister noted, depending on changes in external parameters, three possible scenarios for the development of the economy of Kazakhstan were considered. The basis for the formation of the forecast and budget parameters is taken as the base scenario. He assumes an oil price of $55. Real GDP growth is projected at 4.1% in 2020. In 2024, it will reach 4.7%. The average annual GDP growth rate over 5 years will be 4.4%.
“Sustainable and progressive dynamics of the economy will be ensured by a higher increase in gross capital formation, moderate growth in domestic consumption and exports. Investments will become a significant factor in maintaining economic growth,” Dalenov emphasized.
In the context of industry, the main growth will be in the non-oil sector. This is manufacturing, services and construction. The average growth of these industries will be at the level of 4.7%. Contribution to GDP growth will be 3.5 pp.
Oil production will increase from 90 million tons in 2020 to 100 million tons in 2024. The increase in production will be due to the expansion of the Tengiz, Karachaganak, Kashagan fields and the commissioning of offshore fields.
Nominal GDP will amount to 75 trillion tenge in 2020, and in 2024 — 106 trillion tenge.
GDP per capita will be $10.5 thousand in 2020, with an increase to $14.3 thousand in 2024.
Exports will grow at an average rate of 2.9%, reaching $63 billion in 2024. The average annual import growth will be at the level of 2.5%, amounting to $37 billion in 2024.
Based on the macroeconomic forecast, a forecast of budget parameters and the National Fund for 2020-2022 has been developed.
“The revenues of the republican budget (excluding transfers) are projected to be 8 trillion tenge in 2020, 8.6 trillion tenge in 2021, and 9.4 trillion tenge in 2022,” said Dalenov.
It is proposed to determine the budget deficit in 2020 at the level of 2.1% of GDP, with a subsequent decrease in 2021 to 1.5% of GDP and in 2022 to 1% of GDP.
The non-oil deficit in 2020 will decrease to 7% of GDP (in 2019, 8.5% of GDP), with a subsequent decrease to 5.1% of GDP in 2022.
Based on these parameters, the republican budget expenditures are forecasted to reach 12.7 trillion tenge in 2020, in 2021 — 13.2 trillion tenge, in 2022 — 13.6 trillion tenge.
The Chairman of the National Bank Erbolat Dossaev also spoke on this issue. According to him, the main goal of the National Bank is to maintain inflation in the range of 4-6% in 2019-2021, with a subsequent decrease to 3-5% in 2022-2024. It is estimated that inflation at the forecast horizon will be inside the target corridor.
“Compared to the first stage of the forecast in April 2019, we revised the dynamics of imports for 2019. This is due to the refinement of the actual data on the nominal GDP for 2018 from 59.6 trillion tenge to 61.8 trillion tenge and, accordingly, for 2019 — to 67.7 trillion tenge, i.e. an increase of 2.2 trillion tenge. As a result, imports of goods in 2019 are estimated at $33.7 billion compared with the April estimate of $34 billion,” Dossaev said.
The current account deficit in 2019 will be 2.7% of GDP compared to the zero balance in 2018. For 2020-2024, the current account deficit is projected to be from 4.1% of GDP in 2020 to 2.3% of GDP in 2023-2024.
After the speeches, members of the Government approved the Forecast for Socio-Economic Development for 2020-2024.