Refinement of the forecast of the main macroeconomic indicators for the years 2019-2023 and budget parameters for 2019-2021.
The price of oil over the past two months shows significant volatility. In early October of this year. it was US dollars 86.2 per barrel. November 23 this year. the price of oil fell to US dollars 58.8 per barrel. The change was 32%.
In this regard, taking into account the current situation on world markets and forecasts of MFIs, the forecast price for oil has been reduced from US dollars 60 per barrel to US dollars 55.
Real GDP growth will be 3.8% in 2019. At the same time, the average annual growth rate of GDP (2019–2023) will be 4.1%.
Nominal GDP will grow from 64.0 trillion tenge in 2019 to 86.5 trillion tenge in 2023.
GDP per capita will amount to US dollars 9.4 thousand in 2019 with an increase to US dollars 12.1 thousand in 2023.
The manufacturing industry will grow by 4.1%, the mining industry by 3.0%. A steady pace will remain in agriculture - 6.4%, the construction industry - 4.1% and trade - 4.4%.
Exports will amount to US dollars 54.1 billion (US dollars 2.4 billion less than approved in August) in 2019 with an increase to US dollars 65.7 billion (US dollars 2.9 billion) in 2023 year Imports will amount to US dollars 32.9 billion (by US dollars 1.9 billion) in 2019 and increase to US dollars 39.6 billion (by US dollars 2.3 billion) in 2023.
The volume of oil production is maintained at the level of 88.0 million tons in 2019, with an increase to 99.0 million tons in 2023.
Inflation is expected in the approved range of 4-6% in 2019, with a subsequent decrease to 3-4% in 2020-2023.
Based on the adjusted macroeconomic forecast, the forecast of budget parameters for 2019-2021 has been revised.
Revenues of the republican budget (excluding transfers) are projected in 2019 in the amount of 6 trillion 786 billion tenge, in 2020 - 7 trillion 360 billion tenge, in 2021 - 7 trillion 998 billion tenge.
The expenses of the republican budget are determined in the amount of 10 trillion in 2019. 727 billion tenge, in 2020 - 11 trillion. 59 billion tenge, in 2021 - 11 trillion. 402 billion tenge.
The budget deficit in 2019 is planned at the level of 2018, 1.5% of GDP, with a subsequent reduction in 2020 to 1.4% of GDP and in 2021 to 1.3% of GDP.
The non-oil deficit will shrink from 6.9% of GDP in 2019 to 5.3% of GDP in 2021. This is within the target values established by the Concept of the formation and use of the National Fund (in 2019, 7.2% of GDP, in 2020 - 7.0% of GDP, in 2021 - 6.6% of GDP).
The currency assets of the National Fund will increase in 2019 from US dollars 63.0 billion to US dollars 67.4 billion in 2021 (33.6% of GDP).